Market Reaction to Elon Musk Tweets and Stock Prices

Not to sound conspiratorial, but something smells off.

According to recent reports, X’s valuation has surged back to $44 billion—the exact price Elon Musk paid for it—up from a previous valuation of around $9 billion.

Morgan Stanley, one of the main institutions that financed the original deal, is also behind this new valuation.

This is a platform that has lost: • Major ad revenue • Key executive leadership • Most of its media value and cultural influence • Tons of users (and credibility)

And suddenly… it’s back to $44Billion?!?! What the fuck?

Meanwhile, Tesla’s stock is down like 50% since the start of the year and everything is just getting shittier.

This doesn’t make any fucking sense. It seems too mother fucking coincidental.

I feel like Elon is just trolling the world

Elon is finally embracing the anime memes circling about him on users lmaoo

What a time to be alive.

Holy fuck this is actually real lmao

To be fair, these tweets also come in after larger landmark events that influence price much more than his tweets alone (such as the actual release of cyber punk, or the 100% rise in btc). Great graphic: visually compelling, tells a story, incorporates mixed media effectively. Thanks for sharing.

We can clearly see correlation here, but it doesn't prove causation. So I think the claims are a little strong! But would be interesting to actually test this hypothesis.

like genuinely trying to explain it makes me sound like a crazy person and also makes me realize how batshit crazy this all sounds without hours of context. and even with context it doesn’t make much sense because neo nazi views are very much not rational

An honest question to which I don't know the answer and to which I'd like some as-objective-as-possible takes.

It seems obvious that Musk's actions with DOGE are basically running the Twitter playbook over again, to the extent that his team seems to be literally reusing some of the same emails and messaging. So it seems worth asking: Did Musk succeed in his goals at Twitter/X? I've never been on Twitter, have very little idea what's going on with its finances, and I'm getting most of my news from alt-center blogs, so I feel ill-equipped to answer this question myself.

BUT I do think I can ask the question in a few helpful ways. I see three potential types of goals in Musk's Twitter takeover:

1. Was it good for Elon? Was it a good business decision? Will he make money on his investment?

2. Was it good for Twitter? How is X currently doing, in terms of revenue, user base, market valuation, etc. compared to how it was a couple years ago? When Elon said that he could run Twitter effectively at a small fraction the cost, did that happen? He came in, blew everything up without much regard for laws or agreements around worker protections, and then put back the few pieces he deemed essential. Did he manage to do that, avoid major legal or financial complications to his actions, and re-stabilize operations relatively quickly? Is the platform now basically stable and functional and still the most quotable social media platform but with 20% of the staff? When the dust settled, what functions did Twitter lose in the long-term? I gather that there's been some degradation in quality, but it's hard to tell from the outside to what extent that's really about the platform not working rather than people's feeds now featuring more conservative voices. Which brings us to...

3. Did it advance "the good," as understood by Elon? This is a hard thing to pin down, but I assume his ideological goal was something like: Smash up the indigo blob, re-platform folks who'd been "cancelled," and create more space for right-wing voices in mainstream social media. If that was the goal, did it work? Or did the indigo blob echo chamber just move elsewhere?

Seems to me like honest answers to these questions are critical to understand what is likely to happen with DOGE in the coming months. Surely someone has spilled some ink on this already? If so, I'd love to see it.

FWIW, my gut intuition about these questions is roughly: 1 - no, 2 - probably financially bad but functionally okay, 3- basically succeeded.

lol prediction markets are scams

cool! i built a list for prediction market analysis tools.

feel free to submit a PR and add yours here: 

I trade in this market. He does not make 100k a week on average. He simply just caught a rare event (elon tweeting 100 tweets a day) and managed to buy shares that were very low probability of paying off. He postured for months. He is a relatively good trader, and no its not a fucking insider stupid users.

I checked this market last night and didn't expect to see a move like this.

The 180-199 tweets range was at just 6.5%. Within a few hours, it jumped to 96%.

Elon is already around 182 tweets, with only a few hours left in the window. The 200-219 range has dropped to around 4.4%, while the other ranges have almost completely disappeared.

As the tweet count climbed, the other outcomes started disappearing one by one.

Has anyone traded the Elon tweet markets before? Do you see any pattern in them, or is it basically random?

Three strategies: Smart Money (following top Polymarket wallets), Arb (NegBin forecast vs market price), and Safe Trades (NO positions where model + smart money agree).

12 resolved trades so far. Arb is up +171% ROI; the other two are underwater. 60% win rate combined. Every trade is calculated and logged automatically.

Everything's logged publicly btw - elontweets.xyz/trades

Curious if anyone else is playing these markets.

Thank you for your Original Content, /!
Here is some important information about this post:

• View the author's citations

• View other OC posts by this author

Remember that all visualizations on should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. If you see a potential issue or oversight in the visualization, please post a constructive comment below. Post approval does not signify that this visualization has been verified or its sources checked.

Join the Discord Community

Not satisfied with this visual? Think you can do better? Remix this visual with the data in the author's citation.

I'm open source | How I work

171% on arb is wild especially with the other two getting killed like that

Any public Polymarket wallet?

I guess, it is pretty obvious that Elon Musk tweets affect the trading.

I am looking for a free API which gives me its Tweets so i can analyze them.

Anybody knows something reliable?