Which prediction market has the best sports liquidity?

Polymarket offers the strongest liquidity for major future and exact-outcome sports markets, especially for championships and Finals MVP.

How does novig differ from traditional sportsbooks?

Novig uses a peer-to-peer order book and charges no vig on matched plays, which compounds savings across a series.

Is kalshi a good choice for sports betting?

Kalshi is better suited for elections and binary event contracts. It can suffer from lower liquidity and wider spreads on individual games compared to traditional sportsbooks.

Are prediction markets legal everywhere in the us?

Legality and accessibility vary by state, much like traditional sportsbooks.

Prediction Market Platforms Compared Polymarket Novig Kalshi

Polymarket, Novig, and Kalshi are the main prediction market platforms discussed, each with distinct advantages based on their market focus and structure.

Polymarket has strong liquidity for championship and exact-outcome sports markets. Novig uses a peer-to-peer order book with no vig on matched plays, benefiting bettors over a series. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and works well for elections and binary events, though its sports liquidity can fall short.

Comparing markets is tricky because identical questions can have different contract resolutions, cutoff dates, or settlement rules. Prediction markets often offer better odds and no limits for sharp bettors compared to traditional sportsbooks, but some users worry about ethical concerns and the classification of these platforms as gambling.

Prediction Market Platforms Compared Polymarket Novig Kalshi — infographic

Users users discuss prediction markets, highlighting Polymarket for its strong liquidity in championship and exact-outcome sports markets, Novig for its peer-to-peer, no-vig sports-first approach, and Kalshi as a regulated option, though some find its sports liquidity lacking.

Key Prediction Market Platforms

Polymarket: Offers strong liquidity on major future and exact-outcome sports markets, especially for championships and Finals MVP. "Strong liquidity on the championship market and Finals MVP"

Novig: Distinguished by its peer-to-peer order book and no "vig" on matched plays, providing sharp lines for various sports events. "No vig on matched plays (hence the name), which compounds across a 7-game series"

Kalshi: A CFTC-regulated platform, it's often seen as better for elections and binary events rather than granular sports markets where liquidity can be an issue. "Kalshi was built for elections, politics, and binary event contracts."

Challenges in Comparing Markets

Contract Differences: Markets that appear similar can have critical differences in resolution sources, cutoff dates, and how edge cases settle, leading to price discrepancies. "same question is not the same as same contract."

Liquidity and Spreads: Liquidity can vary significantly between platforms and market types, impacting spreads and potential profitability. "Game level liquidity runs dry, markets are restricted, and the spreads on individual games can land worse than what you'd see on DraftKings."

Regulatory Status: The legality and accessibility of prediction markets can differ by state, similar to sportsbooks. "I know this may sound naive but are all of the prediction market sites legal in all 50 states in the US?"

Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks

Better Odds (Liquid Markets): Prediction markets often offer better odds on liquid markets due to the absence of a house "vig," especially for users who understand order book mechanics. "There is no house to make vig."

Zero Limits for Sharps: Unlike traditional sportsbooks that limit sharp bettors, prediction markets operate more like stock exchanges with fewer limits, allowing larger trades. "Prediction markets also have zero limits, for sharp bettors this is a huge positive."

Controversy and Perception: Some view prediction markets as gambling, raising concerns about their ethical implications and the potential for market manipulation. "Should be treated like the gambling it is."

Dissenting Opinions

Exploitable Mispricings: Despite general liquidity concerns, some users find significant mispricings on platforms like Kalshi due to lower volume, which can be profitable for diligent traders. "I'm having huge success on kalshi because the volume is lower than stock options."

Ethical Concerns: A notable concern is that prediction markets, like other forms of gambling, can be corrosive to individuals and society, particularly regarding attracting younger users. "I'll get hate for it (from the younger crowd) but I simply don't like the fact that they allow kids to bet on shit."

Are you interested in exploring specific features or markets on any of these platforms?