SpaceX Mars Mission Updates: Timelines, Shifts, and Feasibility

“Mars transfer windows aren’t conducive to quarterly earnings meetings. Investors are more likely to tolerate launches each week.”

FTFY

I can't wait for fraud to be illegal again.

Let the IPO hype games begin

Post from last night on X for those who think Elon has abandoned Mars. I think his timelines are off as usual but I think its good he's still talking about short timelines as it means its still a near term goal for him.

The above post by Elon was in reply to a X post/video clip posted by Peter Diamandis (founder of the XPRIZE foundation, among many other things) where he interviewed Jared Isaacman.

I asked @NASAAdmin when we'll have boots on Mars, this was his response:

"SpaceX's stated priority right now is the Moon, not Mars and that changes the Mars timeline and how many people we're talking about.

We can invest in nuclear power and propulsion. It's part of national space policy. It's the next giant leap—potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years. Not the Elon vision of millions in a self-sustaining city, but what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, plus industry alongside it.

So step one is the Moon in 2028. In parallel, we invest in nuclear power and propulsion. Hopefully that frees up resources for the next stop: Mars. Different timeframe probably that 15-year mark."

Just a fly by?

Yeah I expect this to go about as well as it did with Dear Moon.

Weren't we supposed to get cargo landings in 2022 and crewed landings in 2024? These timelines mean nothing

Later this year is another Mars launch window that SpaceX won't have anything ready for. When the 2022 launch window came and went, I suggested a small payload on a Falcon Heavy just for the learning experience of sending something to Mars even if it can't do a soft landing. Everyone laughed that was pointless because Starship would be fully functional long before the 2024 launch window.

To send a Starship to Mars for a soft landing they will need to develop the Starship Tanker and Depot variants. A Starship long duration flight variant with fold out solar panels and deep space radio dishes. Develop all the technical skills and calculations involved in a precise interplanetary transfer orbit. All the skills, infrastructure and data connections to the DSN needed to control a spacecraft out in deep space. Obviously developing the Starship lander itself and any scientific probes or robots and rovers they intend to use.

And they need to do that in the next 2.5 years, or it needs to start the refueling launches in about 2 years. All while also working on Artemis 3, 4, 5, building the HLS Starship and just generally getting Starship to orbit and inventing orbital refueling for the first time. Can they do that in time? Honestly I'm not sure they can, even an uncrewed robotic lander is unlikely in that timeframe. Or maybe only a single starship, considering it needs multiple refueling flights for each Starship that leaves Earth orbit. And one Starship as the first interplanetary mission has fairly low odds of a successful landing given the steep learning curve of landing on Mars.

The next launch window is in 2031. That one seems more likely than 2028.

All of Spaces X's predictions are too optimistic, It's the same as Elon's predictions about millions of robo taxis and everyone having their own humanoid robot. He makes stuff up and people believe him

Hi everyone. I’m hoping some longtime SpaceX patch collectors or former employees can help me identify these.
I have six early SpaceX patches:
• Falcon First Flight
• Falcon Demo 2
• Falcon 1 Flight 3
• Falcon 1 Flight 4
• Falcon 9 First Flight
• COTS Demo Flight 1 / Dragon C1
These belonged to my uncle. He worked as a hearing-aid specialist at Sears at Puente Hills Mall in Southern California. He was given the patches there, although unfortunately I don’t know who gave them to him or under what circumstances.
He gave the collection to me more than ten years ago, and he has since passed away. They’ve been in my possession since then.
I’ve learned that there were original early SpaceX/employee patches as well as later reproductions, so I’m not claiming these are employee-issued or authentic originals. I’m trying to determine which versions I actually have.
I’ve included clear photos of the fronts and backs, plus a photo with a standard-size card for scale.
If anyone owns known originals, I’d really appreciate comparisons of the dimensions, embroidery, metallic thread, borders, backing and other identifying characteristics.
I’m particularly interested in whether these appear to be the early production versions, later official SpaceX versions, or reproductions.
Thanks for any knowledge you can share. I’d like to document them correctly before deciding what to do with the collection.

We have never created a working biosphere. until we do that, we can't settle space.

I think that a lot of people who are advocates of *human* spaceflight are so because they see space as an opportunity not just for scientific discovery, but also for social and political experimentation outside the ossifying power structures of earth. You can’t achieve that with robots.

It's good to have a vision and ambitions, but it seems too good that it can be true? You know what I think? We will go to Mars that I'm sure of. But not in this century are we going to have a permanent base there. The harsh conditions of travelling to Mars and what our fragile human body can take. Why not set up a robotic base? Cheaper and less risk to human life. With the advancement of AI, robots can even set up a well functioned science lab over there.

Crewed mars flyby announced. Will it actually fly, or is it doomed to end up like Dear Moon?

Full text:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

A recent Users poster wrote: "No one wants to see space x succeed as long as Elon is a part of it" This is my response.

I don’t think that is the case. Some people have certainly become discouraged by Elon Musk’s behavior or have lost confidence in Starship, but that does not represent the large majority of people who support the human exploration of Mars and the rest of the solar system.

All Mars Society members and other space-exploration advocates still want SpaceX and Starship to succeed. The program is far larger than any one individual. Thousands of highly skilled SpaceX employees—including engineers, scientists, technicians, and construction workers—are doing the difficult work of designing, building, testing, and improving Starship.

My view is simple: I want Musk to continue providing the financial backing and resources needed to keep that team working. I do not have to agree with his politics, personality, or every decision he makes in order to recognize the importance of Starship’s potential.

Gwynne Shotwell and SpaceX’s experienced leadership and engineering teams provide valuable operational knowledge and stability. Starship is not being built by Elon Musk alone; it is being built from top to bottom by a large and extraordinarily capable workforce.

Musk has also made decisions that deserve criticism. One example was the decision to conduct a Starship launch without a flame trench and a fully developed water-deluge system. The resulting damage to the launch site contributed to delays and extensive reconstruction. In my personal opinion, the pressure to launch quickly may have outweighed the caution that such a powerful rocket required.

We can criticize Musk when criticism is deserved while still supporting the thousands of people working to make Starship successful. Wanting SpaceX to succeed does not mean approving of everything Elon Musk says or does. It means recognizing that Starship may still play an essential role in opening Mars and the solar system to human exploration. We wish the SpaceX Starship team success and remain among its strongest supporters.