2026 Box Office Trends Analysis: Revival, Blockbusters, and Challenges

I still think this sub is putting too much stock in The Odyssey. It’ll make money, but 1B?

Unpopular opinion: I think Spider-Man could potentially make more than Doomsday.

I know it’s too early to predict who dominated 2026 especially before GTA 6 but it seems like TV dominated the discussion in 2025- Severance, Wednesday, Stranger Things, Squid Games, Adoloscence, Pluribus and Gaming delivered excellent as well with expedition 33 , Hades II etc but this year is absolutely dominated by movies. Every person is talking about movies from project hail mary to devil wear prada 2 to obsession to michael to odyssey to spiderman now all year long.
It’s strange to see this big comeback of movies, feels even bigger than the year of barbieheimer, somehow feels like it could be a year as big or dare i say bigger than 2019.

Honorable Mentions:

Verity (Amazon MGM)

Digger (Warner Bros.)

Clayface (Warner/DC)

Focker in Law (Paramount/Universal)

GOAT (Sony)

Explaining my Predictions:

-  I fully expect Odyssey to breeze past the billion-dollar mark. Christopher Nolan’s track record with original cinema is staggering: Interstellar hit $700M, Inception reached $800M, and even Tenet managed nearly $400M during the height of the 2020 pandemic. Look at Oppenheimer. while the "Barbenheimer" craze provided a massive $360M launch in its first two weeks, the film earned another $600M globally long after the trend faded, with $190M coming from IMAX. This proves the success was driven by genuine word-of-mouth as well. Combining an all-star cast with an adaptation of one of history’s most famous literary works, Nolan and the IMAX brand have become powerhouse draws that practically guarantee a blockbuster result.

- : I’ve been right about the billion-dollar runs for Zootopia and Inside Out 2, as well as thinking Lilo and Stitch will be big, but I’m skeptical here. This Moana remake doesn't have the same novelty as other sequels/remakes, coming so soon after the first film and the recent sequel. It’s missing that "nostalgia factor" that usually carries these remakes to $1B. Plus, with Minions and Toy Story fighting for the same family demographic, it’s going to have a tougher time. It’ll be a big hit, sure, but likely more of a "Jurassic World" situation than a record-breaker.

It's only August and we still have the potential stories of movies like Dune 3, Doomsday, and others to go. But what have been THE stories this year?

Project Hail Mary's feel good tale and its superb legs.

Michael stunning many by overtaking Bohemian Rhapsody and reaching a billion.

The sequels of Devil Wears Prada 2, Super Mario Galaxy, and Toy Story 5 making bank.

The Backrooms (a movie that originated from a creepypasta and web series, sorry, it's still nuts to me how much this movie made lol) becoming A24's highest grossing flick.

Obsession's being in the cultural zeitgeist with its generational run.

The Odyssey proving Nolan as our generation's Spielberg and already becoming his highest grossing flick.

Spidey shattering Endgame's record and coming for plenty more.

Also on the opposite end. Mandalorian, Supergirl, Minions and other films that were disappointments or outright bombs.

If you had to choose your favorite box office run of the year, what would it be and why?

Gotta be obsession increasing in both its 2nd and 3rd weekends. Closest thing we’ve seen to a modern day sixth sense/titanic run. Odyssey and Spider-Man both doing $1.5B+ WW only 3 weeks apart is mind-blowing too. 2026 is on a generational run!

How many movies do you think will end up crossing the billion dollar mark?
Looks like Toy story 5 and The odyssey are locked in for a billion.
That makes 4
Brand new day and Doomsday are pretty much locked in too
2019 had 9 billion dollar grossers
2026 has 6 locked in at least
Are there any chances of 2026 equalling 2019?

jumanji has competition but it’s not dropping $300m from the last film, hunger games too low imo, i feel pretty confident michael and moana will be billion dollar grossers. verity will do housemaid numbers

I do also think that TV died as a cultural force.

Some of the people on the screenwriting subreddit mentioned that the tide changed and now the industry has been buying more spec feature scripts, as opposed to pilots and TV shows.

1. Avengers: Doomsday - Marvel has fallen far from grace, but people will still show up in droves for the characters they care about. This movie has had almost no build up, so 2B+ is off the table, but Avengers 1 numbers (1.5B) should be doable with it's cast of characters

2. Spiderman: Brand New Day - After a dire 2025, Marvel has better luck this year and claims the top 2. People say being a more street-level movie will hurt it, but I think this will actually be a bonus for a lot of people. A big reason for Marvel's fall off post-Endgame was that all the multiverse stuff was too much for casual fans to keep up with, so they tuned out. Despite no sign of Tobey Maguire returning, this could be more reminiscent of his trilogy. While not to the extent of NWH, this could still cash in on that sweet 2000s nostalgia

3. Super Mario Galaxy - The first Mario movie had overall solid reception and continues to be massive on streaming. Whether it increases or decreases from the 1st movie, Mario Galaxy wont show much movement as I feel like these movies are pushing the ceiling for video game movies, though this is nothing to look down on. This is a smash hit right off the bat, just like the 1st movie

4. Toy Story 5 - TS5 will not suffer from franchise fatigue. TS4 still had glowing reception and we've only had 5 movies over the course of 30 years, meanwhile you have franchises like F&F and Star Wars which are seemingly beyond repair and people are truly fatigued by. TS5 will have a modest increase from TS4, and become the highest grossing TS film

5. The Odyssey - Nolan is at a point where his fanbase can drive his movies to break-even point, and it helps that the Odyssey is more adjacent to your typical Hollywood fantasy epic than Oppenheimer, so more general audiences could show up for this if WOM is good. Despite that I think it'll still fall short of Oppie because the Odyssey doesn't have the Barbenheimer symbiosis

6. Minions 3 - This franchise is still a powerhouse. Families can count on it to entertain their kids and get some decent laughs out of it, though I feel like the minions are past their prime, and if the leaks and rumours are true and this movie lacks Gru, then this could fall below 900M, the 1st of these to do this since Despicable Me 1. Not like that's a death sentence for this franchise, but fatigue could start slowly creeping in

7. Live action Moana - I've seen a lot of 1B+ predictions on this sub. I would fully agree if this came out 10 or even 5 years later, but it's way too soon. Remakes live and die by nostalgia, and the OG Moana only turns 10 in November. This won't pull a L&S or a BatB, let alone a Lion King, but I think it'll fall between Mufasa and HTTYD, leaning towards Mufasa just out of the sheer popularity of Moana

8. Devil Wears Prada 2 - The OG movie was a big hit when it came out, and has only gained a bigger following since then. On top of a 2000s nostalgia factor, this also taps into female audiences, which in recent years have proven to be a huge audience to tap into. If Disney princesses somehow haven't proven that, Barbie and Wicked nailed the point home

9. Dune: part 3 - I'm not an avid reader, but based on what I've heard from Dune fans on this sub, things get a little more complicated from here in the story. The audiences that Dune 2 won over could be turned away, leading to a Wicked - Wicked: For Good kind of decrease. It also doesn't help that this is going up against Avengers. It should still turn a solid profit, but a big decrease nonetheless

10. Michael - Despite being the most popular artist of all time, biopics are just an odd trend and a tough sell. Bohemian Rhapsody was a fluke. Elvis and One Love were hits but not exactly blockbuster territory. I'm thinking Michael falls right in between these

So far we have five films this year that have made a billion. Doomsday will make it six.

The amount of debrief circles I saw after my showing of Brand New Day tonight was heartwarming lol

Record breaking bombs to like Moana, Supergirl, Masters of the Universe.

I made a spreadsheet detailing all my box office predictions for next year's slate of films, 82 in all!

I also did this last year in case you want to review my accuracy: 

AND I made an editable template in case you guys wanna use my spreadsheet too: 

(BTW: The only actual value you enter in is the DOM OW, the only other numbers you enter in are the domestic legs prediction in column C and the domestic percentage of the WW gross in column E, the overseas gross and math from there is done automatically)

Obsession and Backrooms were feel-good hits.

Spider-Man is a great summer blockbuster that deserves every penny it makes.

But The Odyssey is an aspirational blockbuster that had the added benefit of humiliating some of most despicable people on the internet. Just an all-around win.

Project Hail Mary, Toy Story 5, Michael, The Odyssey, BND, DunesDay… so many left off but it’s such a great run and a wide variety of things for people to enjoy!

So here it is, just before the embargo drops for The End of Oak Street. We got 48 answers which is a lot better for a last-minute poll, so what does this sub think will succeed this season because theaters can't just rely on Spider-Man or The Odyssey for all of fall?

The release predicted to do the best is Zach Cregger's take on Resident Evil. In fact, hilariously Resident Evil was also the top predicted choice for the second highest grossing release this season...and also the third highest grossing release. It's also funny to me at least because when I first gave my very optimistic predictions (I'm still expecting this to do numbers similar to Halloween 2018 if not better), I had a lot of pushback from people who argued they previous movies may have turned people away, the loose connections to the games will be a negative, some even said a leaked script would lead to bad WOM. And yet now, it's the film people are most confident will succeed in between Summer and the Thanksgiving season. How bout that?

In second place, we have Verity which is unsurprising given the huge popularity of the book and Colleen Hoover, coupled with Anne Hathaway's popularity. Despite Hoover's reputation as a writer - and the reputation of her film adaptations - there is a lot of hype, especially with a steamy trailer that dropped yesterday.

In third place, well it was a back and forth for a while between Practical Magic 2 and Digger but sneaking through by one point...is Clayface. Warner Bros. has not had a good year and DC especially is in need of a win after the disaster that was Supergirl this summer. We'll see what happens this week if End of Oak Street can overperform and if Lanterns is a satisfying show but for the next theatrical DC film, with this being a lower budget at $40M, can it get a win and even an audience with the horror crowd? Or will it just be another addition to the now growing list of DC embarrassments just this decade?

A couple films that got votes but no unified consensus were Forgotten Island, Digger, PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie, Street Fighter, and Practical Magic 2. I'm a bit surprised we didn't get more votes for The End of Oak Street, Insidious: Out of the Further, or Other Mommy.

And as for the biggest bomb, it seems like people did go with the safe choice for The Dog Stars - a film that...I actually forgot is out in only a few weeks so great job on the marketing there, Disney. I'm really glad you're so supportive of 20th Century Studios! Although there were also people predicting Coyote v. Acme, Street Fighter, and The Social Reckoning to bomb badly.

All indications point to 2026 being the first year since 2019 to feature five or more productions crossing the $1 billion mark at the global box office.

The market already considers the following releases as locks:

• Super Mario Galaxy ✅ • Michael • Toy Story 5 • Spider-Man: Brand New Day • Avengers: Doomsday

Should this scenario materialize, 2026 would tie with 2012, 2015, and 2018 — all of which had five films in the billion-dollar club.

Furthermore, if heavy hitters like Minions 3, The Odyssey, Moana (Live-Action), or Dune: Part Three surprise and also reach that mark, 2026 would surpass its competitors and stand alone as the second year with the most billion-dollar films in history, trailing only the absolute record set in 2019 (which had 9 films).

What's amazing is that apart from the obvious heavy hitters like Mario Galaxy, Michael, and Toy Story 5, this year has had a variety of other non-conventional hits, both commercially and critically:

• Project Hail Mary (sci-fi adventure)- $682 M
• Hoppers (animated sci-fi) - $372 M
• The Drama (romance/ drama) - $132 M
• The Devil Wears Prada 2 (comedy/ drama) - $677 M
• Obsession (romance horror) - $330 M
• Backrooms (liminal space horror) - $301 M

Honestly shocked the Jackson biopic was so successful with the whole child molestation charges

Biopics and tired franchises.. no thanks

1. Avengers: Doomsday: $1.8B

(Could he close to Endgame-level turnout)

1. Spiderman: Brand New Day: $1.4B

(No Way Home hit 1B+ I see this making slightly more)

1. Moana Live Action: $1.2B

(I think this will outperform and be a big suprise)

1. Toy Story 5: $1.1B

(I think just over 1B is accurate for Toy Story 5)

1. Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $1B

(Already at about $945M after about 8 weeks, could see it just hitting $1B)

1. Michael: $950M

(Already at $703M at about 3 weeks of it's release. This could actually reach $1B)

1. The Odyssey $830M

(Don't think it will do as good as Oppenheimer but still will perform very well)

1. Dune: Part 3: $785M

(Could make more, trailer already has 40M views and the movie doesn’t even come out until December)

1. Minions 3: $730M

(I don't see it making more than $730M)

1. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping: $675M

(This could even make more. $1.5 million copies of the book were sold just on its opening week which is double the amount of copies The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes sold and triple the amount Mockingjay sold. This is also about Haymitch Abernathy's Hunger Games/Story and he is an extremely beloved character in the franchise)