Tesla Impact on Stock Market: Hype, Volatility, Valuation

This is bound to trigger investor lawsuits. I think a solid case could be made for gross mismanagement by the CEO. So glad I didn't bet on this unpredictable turd.

The crazy thing is that it’s still massively overvalued.

Elon’s smoke and mirrors salesmanship worked when people weren’t fully acquainted with his idiocy and now that he’s totally exposed it to the world the stock has crashed.

Tesla missed every mark, while Microsoft exceeded every mark. Genuinely how does this happend? i’m fairly new to stocks and trying to understand the ins and out of the marked. Can someone explain in a simple way why this happens?

Bubble is bursting. It was completely stupid that 1 auto maker relatively new to the game, with a handful of models, had a market cap bigger than all other auto makers combined.

Add to that that the superstar CEO of the brand, Musk, got extremely unpopular quickly by jumping into the US government like a wrecking ball, causing still untold amounts of damage. Also, and not the least, he came out as a full fledged nazi... while his original supporters were progressists.

For sure that brand is a bursting bubble.

Seen a lot of posts like that, what does this mean

This is absolute insanity.

Absolute scam, Waymo, a fully operational robotaxi service, contributes almost nothing to Alphabet, while a mere 'testing' robotaxi sends the P/E ratio soaring to 350. Lol

I really don't understand how this stock goes up.

After the election everyone assumed Trump-Elon cooperation will payout in favor of Tesla. But they broke up. Tesla sales started to weaken. P/E is like crazy.

Am I missing something?(except the fact market moves with trends). Why Tesla Stock appears to people, it is worth to invest?

Tesla fundamentals boil down to "hopes and dreams" based on false promises of a raging addict. Also, some of the big players keep pushing TSLA because it's the only way they'll ever see the loans they gave to Elmo payed back.

Tesla’s stock just set a new record, breaking past its previous all-time high from almost exactly a year ago. The rally comes after a wild 12 months for shareholders including a brutal 36% drop in Q1, the stock’s worst quarterly performance since 2022. What’s driving the rebound now seems to be renewed optimism around Tesla’s long-promised robotaxi vision. Investors appear to be betting that Tesla can finally convert its existing fleet of EVs into autonomous, revenue-generating vehicles, rather than treating autonomy as a distant concept. Still, it’s hard to ignore how quickly sentiment has flipped. From heavy losses early in the year to record highs now, Tesla remains one of the most emotion-driven names in the market. Do you see this move as confidence in real progress on autonomy, or just another sentiment-driven Tesla cycle?

Source:

Remember when Hertz announced they will buy a lot of Tesla's, Tesla stock went up like 10% and when 2-3 years later Hertz announced they will be selling most of their Tesla cars because of high maintenance costs, the stock went down just a little bit?

And we are discussing the “AI bubble”… 😅

The market is broken, nothing makes any sense... Tesla goes up, just buy calls. There's nothing here to understand.

They see shit. 

The “bulls” or their bosses have too big stake at Tesla that they can’t dump quickly, and thus they keep beating a dead horse. 

Stock is headed below $200 in this month at current rate of fall. 

All of Musk's shouting from the hilltops about "an Optimus robot in every home" ignores the fact that likely very few people will want a Tesla spybot recording their every move. "Alexa" is bad enough. As for AI, robotaxis, solar panels, and powerwalls -- other companies are already providing these products at scale, so there is stiff competition.

My theory is that even when people are told that they are victims of a scam, they often refuse to believe it. They cling on to hope because the truth is just too emotionally devastating.

Tesla isn’t based on fundamentals right now. It’s based on Tesla creating a monopoly over robotaxis and robots and energy. If they can do this then they belong in the trillion dollar club.

If you believe Elon can execute on this vision. That’s why you’d invest in the company. I personally don’t think they will so I’m not an investor in Tesla.

Also Tesla is a pretty decent component of the indexes. So they’ll get passive inflow from VOO and QQQ and others. So as much as people want to see them crash. Tesla probably realistically won’t and will get dragged up with the indexes as they go higher imo.

Tesla Stock is "Ridiculously Overvalued". Years of shareholder dilution is the central concern. Also Tesla’s valuation remains disconnected from its fundamentals and the company continues to expand its share count with no buyback program in place to offset the effect on existing shareholders.

Tesla’s SEC filings show that the company’s diluted share count has grown at an annual pace of roughly 3.5–3.7% over the past several years, driven primarily by stock-based compensation and past equity raises. Tesla’s outstanding shares have risen from approximately 1.0 billion in early 2020 to more than 3.4 billion today on a split-adjusted basis following the company’s 5-for-1 stock split in 2020 and 3-for-1 split in 2022, both of which increased the total number of shares available to the market.

Tesla issued multiple major equity offerings during the 2020–2021 period, including two $5 billion at-the-market (ATM) raises in September and December 2020, followed by additional tranches in 2021 totaling roughly $12 billion in new equity issuance. These capital raises contributed significantly to the expansion of the company’s float and remain a key driver of long-term dilution.

Tesla’s most recent quarterly filings, which reported over $1.7 billion in stock-based compensation (SBC) expense year-to-date, resulting in a continual increase in the weighted-average share count used for earnings calculations. Tesla continues to rely heavily on SBC as part of its employee and executive compensation structure, including multi-year, performance-based awards.

Tesla has no active share-buyback program, and CEO Elon Musk has previously stated that repurchases would only be considered once the company achieves more predictable and sustained free-cash-flow levels. Absence of buybacks means shareholders absorb the full impact of ongoing dilution, particularly as the company issues new shares to employees and through equity-linked programs.

This is my follow up post to my previous post on the same space which got deleted bcoz I didn't do any detailed analysis.Here you have it

Like many, I have been waiting patiently for years for unsupervised-FSD/Robotaxi on the assumption that once it is undeniably omnipresent, $TSLA will have its next big run up. Currently it looks like we are finally around two years away from this, or even less.

However, if SpaceX IPOs on a super thin float with a valuation that is looking fifteen years into the future and then uses that valuation to acquire $TSLA at something not too far from the current price, it seems like the SpaceX holders will effectively steal the pending robotaxi runup from $TSLA holders and robotaxi will only serve to firm up the resulting combined valuation that was initially based mostly on the thin SpaceX float.

Of course $TSLA shareholders would have to approve, but between the SpaceX fever and retail $TSLA investor's trust in Elon, I suspect approval might be almost automatic.

Also, if some $TSLA holders sell a portion to participate in the SpaceX IPO, that will hit $TSLA short term, making disadvantageous merger terms for $TSLA even easier to achieve. A cynical mind might even think that Elon could favor this outcome because he controls more of SpaceX than $TSLA.

Is this a concern to anyone else? Am I missing something that would make this unlikely?

$300 billion would leave the market just with his equity. The -5% stops would be shutting markets off for days. Think about ETFs. What about shorts and perpetuals. Where would money move?

As i said, i dont understand this. It makes no sense, or am i wrong? What happend? I checked everything i could and i dont see any reason, any trigger or any point why it did, that? +15%

Is there any system, logic or anything behind this? Its even for a meme irrational (IMO)

My Brain breakes trying to figure it out

Edit: okay! Thank you to everyone. I now understand there was a trigger, a market manipulation on twitter from the hateful orange. This helps a lot.